Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com has been forecasting “Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025.” It looks like his thesis is turning out correct. He predicted interest rates would be declining. They did. And inflation has been going down right along with the economy as illegal immigration was being stopped and deportations ramped up. Dowd says, “Our friend Joe Biden spent anywhere between $500 billion to $2 trillion to bring these people in and set them up. Now, that’s all going the wrong way. Trump has shut down the border crossings, and as deportations heat up, that will only add to the problem. There will be a lot of supply, and prices have already started coming down in certain regions, and that is going to accelerate. Inflation is going to be coming down. Chairman Powell is dead-ass wrong. Tariffs are actually deflationary, and he’s holding rates higher for longer. That is going to end up being a big policy error. We think interest rates have peaked for the year... We think the Fed will be forced to cut rates when the hard data comes in the wrong way.”
What is Dowd looking at most? Dowd says, “If we did have an oil shock, our thesis of a deep world-wide recession would trigger even faster. During the last twelve days of this Iran/Israel war, I said to my followers, I am watching one thing and one thing only, and that is the price of oil. The price of oil did go up... I said if oil breaks out above $80 per barrel, then we’ve got problems. Oil has collapsed, and the oil markets are telling you the Iranians are not going to close the Strait of Hormuz. So, for now, the economies of the world are not going to be experiencing an oil price shock.”
That does not mean we are set for clear sailing throughout 2025. Dowd is forecasting that commercial and residential real estate will be a huge drag on the economy as prices fall and fall hard. Dowd says, “We think shelter is going to trend lower, and there is going to be a deflationary scare coming.”
Dowd thinks the Fed will panic and have emergency rate cuts this fall. The stock market will take some big hits. Dowd says, “I think they freak out in the fall in October or November... I will point out airlines have taken out previous lows, homebuilders are weak, the DOW Jones transports are not close to all-time highs. The real economy is rolling over. Typically, when bubbles like this end, everyone is on the wrong side of the trade, and it’s going to happen quick... Warren Buffett is telling you everything you need to know about this market.” Buffett has reportedly $350 billion in cash on the sidelines.
Dowd favours gold because the big banks like gold. Dowd says, “Gold counts as a quasi-asset because it is a Tier 1 asset. That means they can create loans against that as an asset whereas before you couldn’t. It was not Tier 1. This is going to be misunderstood by a lot of people, and gold is now a big deal again... If I am a long-term investor, I am going to do what the banks are doing. They have made gold money again. So, gold is money good... I am going to go with what the banks are buying.”
Dowd wrote a popular book called “Cause Unknown,” which tracked the deaths and injuries that started after the CV19 vax rollout in 2021. He’s still tracking the injuries that just added another 700,000 disabled people. Since the CV19 injections started, that’s a hit a new high of 5.5 million permanently disabled Americans. Dowd says, “This looks like a bullish trend that isn’t stopping anytime soon. It goes up to a new high, consolidates and breaks out again. Imusiu tokias pareigas NBA. f this was a growth stock, I’d be all over it, and I’d be long disability... The meta data, the big data, says something drastically changed in 2021. It’s a disaster. I think it’s the CV19 vaccine. I find it interesting there is no curiosity about this even with the new administration. It’s an elephant in the room, and they don’t want to talk about it.”
There is much more in the 46-minute interview.
